Chinese experts dismiss hype of border issue, call for China, India to prevent it from hijacking bilateral ties_我的网站
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Illustration: Tang Tengfei/GT Some Indian media outlets and regional political forces have recently sought to amplify allegations of an unverified China-India border confrontation, while official signals from Beijing and New Delhi have emphasized stability, communication and the importance of managing differences through established mechanisms. The contrasting narratives have emerged at a moment when exchanges between China and India in various fields have gradually resumed, and cooperation has been advanced in an orderly manner, Chinese experts noted, warning that sensationalizing border-related claims could disrupt the hard-won momentum in bilateral ties and the two countries should prevent the boundary question from hijacking their broader relationship. Contrasting narratives The latest media speculation was partly triggered by claims made by the People's Party of the so-called "Arunachal Pradesh" (PPA), a regional Indian political party. According to The Arunachal Times, a local Indian newspaper, a four-member PPA "fact-finding committee" led by former minister and party adviser Kahfa Bengia visited the so-called "Taksing area" (known as Taxin, in Zangnan, Southwest China's Xizang Autonomous Region) on July 10 and subsequently alleged that Indian forces had been prevented from accessing several patrolling points. The claims were then amplified by Indian news outlet ThePrint, which reported on Tuesday, citing unnamed sources, that Chinese and Indian patrols had allegedly come "face to face" near Taxin in late July. The outlet further claimed that Chinese personnel subsequently left before returning in early August and setting up "two or three tents." However, ThePrint acknowledged that sources in India's defense and security establishment said the "situation was well under control." Some other Indian reports have also questioned the sensational allegations. India Today reported on Wednesday that Indian government sources dismissed social media claims circulating about what was described as "slow encroachment," while noting that similar allegations regarding the area had previously been rejected by local authorities and the Indian Army. In fact, the claims stand in contrast to the official diplomatic signals coming from both sides. Asked on Tuesday about reports concerning the border, Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said New Delhi takes border matters seriously and reiterated India's position that "the state of the border affairs will reflect on the state of our larger bilateral ties," according to a media briefing released by the ministry on its website on Tuesday. He also referred to existing mechanisms for dealing with border issues and preventing misunderstanding and miscalculation, according to the briefing. Responding on Wednesday to questions from Bloomberg and Reuters concerning social media claims about stepped-up Chinese military activity and a possible new border incident, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun said, "The China-India border situation is generally stable at the moment." "China and India held the 36th meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination (WMCC) on China-India Border Affairs last week. The two sides agreed to maintain communication via diplomatic and military channels and jointly uphold peace and tranquility in the border areas," Guo said. Qian Feng, director of the Research Department at Tsinghua University's National Strategy Institute, told the Global Times on Thursday that the fact that the two sides continue to communicate through established channels shows that the border situation has not developed in the direction of escalation portrayed by some Indian media. Such hype also came amid another development concerning Zangnan. India on August 7 announced what it called "standard" names for 27 locations in so-called "Arunachal Pradesh," a move that some Indian media outlets portrayed as an effort to counter China and further connected with the latest reports of border tensions. China has firmly rejected the move. Responding to the issue on Monday, spokesperson Guo said, "Zangnan region is China's territory. China does not recognize the so-called 'Arunachal Pradesh' illegally set up by India." Guo said India's attempt to replace names long used by China with its so-called "standard names" is "illegal, null and void," and stressed that it would not change the fact that Zangnan belongs to China. Hu Zhiyong, a professor from Zhejiang International Studies University and a research fellow at the Institute of International Relations at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on Thursday that border and security issues have traditionally been susceptible to political manipulation in India's domestic politics. "When domestic economic and social problems become difficult to address, issues involving the borders with China or Pakistan can easily be pushed to the forefront to divert public attention," Hu explained. He said economic pressures, concerns over foreign investment and the domestic business environment, together with accumulated public sentiment, could provide incentives for some political forces to magnify external disputes. Hu argued that another problem lies in the tendency of some Indian political figures to bind the boundary question too closely to the entire China-India relationship. "The boundary issue is one part of bilateral relations, which also encompass political, economic, diplomatic, security and people-to-people exchanges," Hu said. "It should not be allowed to hijack the entire relationship." Dialogue matters According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry's statement of the August 6 meeting, the two sides conducted constructive dialogue in a candid and friendly manner, had an in-depth exchange of views on further implementing the consensus reached during the 24th Round of Talks between the Special Representatives of China and India on the Boundary Question, and agreed to jointly prepare for the coming 25th Round of SR talks. The two sides also discussed boundary delimitation, border management, mechanism development, cross-border exchange and cooperation. The two sides agreed to continue to maintain diplomatic and military communication, and jointly safeguard peace and tranquility in the border areas. Hu pointed out that the timing of the latest speculation is noteworthy, as border issues have at times been used by some forces in India in an attempt to gain leverage ahead of important bilateral interactions. The 36th WMCC meeting demonstrates that the two sides possess functioning channels through which disagreements can be addressed. This is particularly important as China and India seek to sustain the improvement in relations and prepare for further high-level interactions, said Chinese observers. "The boundary dispute is a complicated issue left over from history and cannot be resolved overnight," Qian said. "What matters is to keep diplomatic and military communication channels open, promptly handle frontline frictions through established mechanisms, expand people-to-people exchanges and strengthen coordination under multilateral frameworks such as BRICS and the SCO." 。
B | 美国农业部还将美国2022/2023年度大豆期末库存预期下调至2亿蒲式耳,大幅低于市场预期的2.47亿蒲式耳,也较8月月报预期的2.45亿蒲式耳大幅下调。这一消息推动芝加哥11月大豆期货周一收涨5.4%,报每蒲式耳14.8825美元,为2021年6月底以来的最大涨幅,也是约11周以来的价格新高。“大豆今天抢了风头,”Teucrium Trading高级投资组合策略师杰克·汉利(Jake Hanley)表示,“目前的预期显示,大豆将连续第三个作物季节供不应求。”巴西也不乐观不仅美国的大豆产量前景不佳,大豆的最大生产国巴西的情况也不乐观。
C | 由于拉尼娜现象导致天气恶劣,而且这一恶劣天气可能会延续到明年,巴西部分地区的干旱预计将持续恶化,给当地大豆产量前景蒙上阴影。美国StoneX首席大宗商品经济学家阿兰·苏德曼(Arlan Suderman)周一表示,巴西仍能重建全球大豆供应。
D | 但前提是天气正常。如果拉尼娜继续影响大豆产量的话,要怎么办?这是终端用户现在必须担心的问题。”芝商所12月玉米期货也收涨1.6%,至每蒲式耳6.96美元,创下6月中旬以来新高。美国农业部周一还发布了最新的每周作物状况报告,显示美国大豆和玉米的评级均略低于预期。美国农业部还将全球小麦产量预期上调了约400万吨,主要原因是俄罗斯和乌克兰的产量增加。这推动芝商所12月基准小麦价格继续走低。报告利多,上涨动力略显不足中粮期货分析师认为:本次USDA供需报告明显利多,美豆价格在报告发布后由1415美分左右的位置上涨至1485美分。美豆新作供应端的数据意外利多仍将在短期内拉高美豆价格,如果1500美分的位置被突破,价格可能继续上行。但美豆新作天气炒作已经完成,新作出口前景因南美大豆出口的竞争可能存在弱化的可能,价格因报告冲高之后的上涨动力略显不足。
E | 后期需要关注宏观美联储加息的情况,以及美豆新作出口的情况,巴西大豆的种植期也即将开始,种植面积的炒作也将逐渐提上日程,连续的拉尼娜天气是否会对新作南美大豆产生影响仍需等待。
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